Palestinian factions in Lebanon are eager to open a second front against Israel if the Shia-backed group Hezbollah leads the charge, fighters and analysts said.
“Wherever [Israel] is ready for [the fight] to happen, it will happen,” said Ahmed Habet, a member of the Palestinian party Fatah in Burj al-Barajneh, a refugee camp in Lebanon’s capital Beirut.
“I’m the blood of my homeland. I live for my homeland. I don’t live for the future,” he added.
An all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah – backed by Palestinian factions – is a possible scenario that could drag Lebanon and the region into a catastrophic conflict.
Since Saturday, more than 700 Israelis and 500 Palestinians have been killed following Hamas’s surprise operation from the Gaza Strip, a piece of land that it governs and that Israel has besieged for 16 years. Rights groups describe Gaza – home to two million people – as the “world’s largest open-air prison.”
On Monday, Israel announced a “total blockade” of the coastal enclave, cutting off supplies of water, food and electricity in an act of collective punishment that, under international law, represents a war crime.
Unlike fighters in Gaza, branches of Palestinian factions in Lebanon such as Hamas, Fatah and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) can not sustain an assault against Israel on their own.
Enter Hezbollah, which fired mortar strikes from Lebanon into the occupied Shebaa Farms on Sunday. Israel responded with artillery strikes as it continued to battle Hamas fighters inside southern Israel while bombing the Gaza Strip indiscriminately.
Both sides may not be able to avoid – and may even welcome – a major escalation, said some analysts. Whether a broader conflagration actually unfolds could depend on the next steps Israel takes — at home, and against the Gaza Strip, they said.
“A conflict on that scale will be much more likely if [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu is able to form a unity government,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow with Carnegie Middle East Center, a Beirut-based think-tank.
Hezbollah may also launch a direct attack if Israel seriously escalates its operations on the Gaza Strip, according to Ahmed Abed, an official for Hamas’s branch in Lebanon.
“Hezbollah … decided that they will engage [Israel] if the retaliation against Gaza is excessive. They said they are coordinating with the leadership of [Hamas] in Palestine and that they will intervene at the right time [if need be],” he told Al Jazeera.
Netanyahu has vowed to turn parts of Gaza into rubble and warned residents in the enclave – nearly half of whom are children – to “get out” now. Rights groups and experts have noted that civilians in Gaza have nowhere to flee because of the blockade.
That hasn’t stopped Israel from escalating bombardment on Gaza and amassing 100,000 troops for a possible ground assault.
Hezbollah is capable of launching a sophisticated attack if it chooses, according to Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based expert with the Atlantic Council.
“The Hamas operation is bigger by far than any single operation carried out by Hezbollah [against Israel], although the tactics Hamas used were straight from Hezbollah’s guidebook,” he said. “Hezbollah has been training for these kinds of border-breaching missions since at least 2007.”
