The tragedy of Pakistan is that there is no neutral arbiter left in the State apparatus not the judiciary, not the Presidency, not even the Pakistan Army. Crisis is now passé in Pakistan. Admittedly, the current standoff between the authoritarian populist Imran Khan and the military has an element of novelty to it, but even in the most dramatic scenario, it will likely end with not much more than regime change and some further weakening of the military’s political role which was also the promise of Gen. Retd. Bajwa.
There have been bigger crises in this country of 220 million people. Long wars have been fought inside and outside its borders, prime ministers have been hung and assassinated, and in 1971 half the country broke away to form Bangladesh. But one thing has never changed through all this. The vision of development held by Pakistani elites and the international development establishment has displayed remarkable stability from the 1960s to now. This stability and the corresponding lack of alternatives represents a much bigger crisis than the inter-elite warfare currently underway.
For those familiar with the history and politics of the Global South, the vision is familiar. The green pastures at the end of the rainbow are replicas of the industrialized North. Pakistan’s Vision 2025 sets itself the goal of making Pakistan the ‘next Asian Tiger’.
Substantively, this means increasing both the quantum and value of production and consumption through a top-down, modernizing approach that does not brook challenge. Large infrastructure is therefore built to extract, process and transport resources. Agriculture is transformed into a high-productivity, low-employment, cash-cropping sector. Production for export continues to be prioritized because of the potential for growth and foreign exchange earnings. While average lifespans have gone up and many people now enjoy amenities that they couldn’t dream of 100 years ago think electric lighting, access to motorized transport, sugar, and so on the failures have been much bigger. The floods of 2010 and 2022 in Pakistan are perhaps the most dramatic examples of this.
But the evidence clearly shows that the effects of climate change have also been significantly enhanced by the physical, social and political results of 75 years of development. Critical geographer Daanish Mustafa diagnoses the broader problem thus: “Pakistani water managers (like their counterparts in most of the Global South) suffer from an acute case of mega-projectivities: a deadly disease caused by modernity and a blind commitment to colonial thinking and practices”. ‘Mega-projectivities’ in Pakistan began with the construction of the most extensive canal irrigation system in the world in the late 19th century, continued with the post-colonial construction of large dams, barrages, canals and drains starting in the mid-1960s, and carries on today.
This, despite the fact that the state has no money and thus has resorted to crowdfunding new dams. It manifests in the preoccupation with building huge roads, housing estates and sprawling, shiny, empty airports like the new one in Islamabad. All are kickback-friendly, large, highly-visible monuments that are supposed to perform the twin function of leapfrogging Pakistan into an urbanized modernity and catalyzing economic growth.
Without a doubt, Pakistan needs a plan. It needs to feed, house and nurture 220 million people without externalizing on any beings or any things the costs incurred.