Political analysts believe former prime minister Imran Khan’s announcement to dissolve the provincial assemblies of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) on Friday, December 23, has put the government on the back foot and made its life more difficult.
Flanked by Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhry Parvez Elahi and KP Chief Minister Mahmood Khan, Khan announced on Saturday his decision to dissolve the provincial assemblies of both provinces where his party is in power. He said his party would then prepare for elections in the two provinces.
Ousted via a parliamentary vote in April, Khan has taken to the streets multiple times against the government of PM Shehbaz Sharif to demand snap elections. Sharif has refused his demand and said polls would be held late next year as per schedule.
However, political analysts believe Khan’s announcement has put the government on the defensive mode and increased pressure on it.
“He’s put the government in a difficult position by announcing the decision to dissolve the assemblies,” Mazhar Abbas, senior journalist and political analyst, told Arab News. “The decision is a political one and a constitutional one as he has decided to dissolve assemblies [where his own party is in power.]”
Abbas said if the government decides to prevent Khan from dissolving the assemblies, it would be an “anti-democratic” behavior on its part. He said the government itself had been challenging Khan to dissolve assemblies where his party is in power if he wanted snap elections.
Following the announcement, local media reports said PM Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party was mulling a vote of no-confidence against the Punjab chief minister.
“If a vote of no confidence motion is filed tomorrow (Monday) then the assembly cannot be dissolved till a decision on it is not taken,” he said. “It [vote of confidence decision] can happen quickly or can also be delayed.”
He said the coming days would also prove to be a ‘test’ for Khan’s political ally and Punjab chief minister Elahi. “The coming days would reveal his intentions as to how quickly he wants to do this [dissolve Punjab assembly],” Abbas said.
PML-N leader and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s spokesperson, Mohammad Zubair, conceded it is a “win-win situation” for Khan. He said if the opposition in Punjab goes ahead with the vote of no-confidence against Elahi, then Khan would claim he went ahead with his promise to dissolve assemblies but was prevented from doing so.
“He will plunge the country through more uncertainty and high [political] tension will also persist,” Zubair told Arab News. He said the PML-N and its allies in Punjab had not decided whether it wanted to go ahead with the vote against Elahi or not.
“If the vote of no confidence [against Punjab CM] is not pursued, then obviously the assemblies would be dissolved and it would put [more] burden on the election commission and the government,” he conceded.
“Imagine, who will run Punjab and KP? Who will come to an agreement to let a caretaker setup be responsible for holding elections in these two provinces,” he asked.
Zubair said despite his public statements, Elahi did not want to dissolve the Punjab Assembly.
“Why would he want to venture into uncertain territory, when there is the certainty that he would remain chief minister till next year,” he asked.
Zubair said Elahi would have preferred to remain chief minister till next year and solidify his political capital in Punjab by spending funds for development and providing favors to bureaucrats.
Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Pakistan-based think tank PILDAT, said Khan “has not totally closed his window” by giving a six-day deadline to the government. He is expecting that in the next four to five days, some negotiations that may be going on behind-the-scenes, may bear fruit,” Mehboob told Arab News. “If Khan was so determined to dissolve the assemblies, he would have done so immediately.”
He said if the assemblies are dissolved, it would cause disruption for the government and would increase political and financial instability in the country.
“When election campaigning is going on, it puts the entire focus on the polls,” Mehboob said. “Issues that need our attention, such as economic problems and the floods, will be ignored,” he added.
