Experience has taught me that one must learn a few jungle rules if one is to survive longer than the five-year political and economic cycles that sway the world economy. Do not focus on blips in the figures that occur daily or quarterly. Instead of letting ego stand in the way of a calculated retreat, adapt to the shifting landscape. Prioritize broad trends and keep an eye out for crossovers. Create a method to recognize significant indicators of change even when everyone else is content to follow the existing course.
Every country is equally susceptible to the boom and bust cycles that cause the majority of deaths. Cycles of rapid economic expansion that eventually exhaust cats instead of sprinting cheetahs.
One must adopt the notion that the world economy is a chaotic jungle with booms, busts, and protests as common occurrences in order to comprehend the rise and fall of nations.
An time is over when “its central illusions are exhausted,” according to American playwright Arthur Miller. The pre-crisis era’s delusions of expanding prosperity are now completely over.
An economy may lose its ability to self-correct once it contracts past a certain threshold. In a typical recession, for instance, higher unemployment and lower earnings will eventually result in new hiring cycles and a rebound. if the downturn is However, if it is too lengthy and extensive, it may undermine labour force capabilities and result in widespread bankruptcies, and gut industrial capacity, leading to an even longer downturn.
But if it lasts too long and is too severe, it can undermine industrial capacity, cause numerous bankruptcies, and obliterate labour force skills, which will result in a lengthier depression. Hysteresis, a term used to describe a situation in which slow or negative growth results in slower growth rather than recovery, is the keyword for this hazard.
