First let us look at the landmark moments :
PTI Chairman Imran Khan once again criticized the incumbent coalition government and alleged that it was going to recognize Israel.
The former prime minister’s comment came in response to Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s statement where he acknowledged that he had had a meeting with a Pakistani-American delegation, terming the encounter “amazing.” At the Charsadda jalsa, Khan said the PTI government had reached an agreement with Russia for the import of petrol at 30 pc cheaper rates, but the “imported government abolished that agreement” in fear of US administration and increased petrol and diesel prices.
The Pakistani prime minister made headlines last week when he revealed that Islamabad has been under pressure from some “friendly” nations to recognize Israel. The defining situation in Palestine is “exactly the same situation” in Indian-administrated Kashmir, Pakistan’s prime minister said Wednesday, stressing that his country cannot recognize Israel and what Israel has done to Palestine.
In an interview with a Turkish television station, Imran Khan said there are two reasons why Pakistan cannot recognize Israel.
“The situation in Kashmir is exactly the same situation in Palestine. If we recognize Israel’s takeover of Palestine territories, then we also have to recognize what India has done in Kashmir, so we completely lose moral standing,” he said.
On the second reason, which he prefaced with “much more importantly,” he recalled Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan’s policy regarding the issue, who said that unless injustice done to the people of Palestine is removed and unless the people of Palestine are given their homeland, Pakistan cannot recognize Israel.
Responding to a question on Islamophobia in the West, Khan said there are Western leaders who have exacerbated Islamophobia since they do not understand how Muslims feel about Prophet Muhammad and the Holy Quran.
Although he stopped short of naming them despite being repeatedly asked whether they were Muslim or non-Muslim countries, many believe Imran Khan was referring to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. “Leave this [question]. There are things we cannot say. We have good relations with them,” Khan told the interviewer.
The biggest game changer may be the almost certain ascent of the 31-year old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the Saudi throne. MbS, as he is often referred to now, is close to Jared Kushner. He is also keen to make a foreign policy mark to eclipse local and international doubts about his youth, governing ability and statesmanship, particularly given his role in the catastrophic developments in Yemen, which attracted widespread international criticism.
Two key factors here are Saudi Arabia’s official alliance with Israel which will embolden every other nation in the region given its Islamic credentials and reduced tensions and conflicts between Israel and Palestine that will provide Israel a higher acceptance level amongst the Arab public.
Mohammed bin Salman is surrounded by advisors known for sympathetic positions towards Israel and hostility to Islamist groups such as Hamas. One of them is Abdul Rahman al-Rashed, an influential journalist-turned-political-advisor, whose anti-Hamas rhetoric has normalised criticism of the Palestinian group in Saudi media. Al-Rashed has lobbied to label Hamas as a terrorist organisation, a position adopted by Israel for many years.
“Let us stand on our own feet in terms of the economy, then you may ask these questions,” Khan further said, referring to Islamabad’s longstanding economic dependence on the oil-rich Gulf states. Though Khan clearly articulated Pakistan’s position that unless a just settlement of the Palestine issue — satisfactory to Palestinians — was found, Pakistan could not recognize Israel, Islamabad is abuzz with rumors about a possible Saudi role.
Mohammad Ali Siddiqi, a Karachi-based analyst who often writes on the Middle East, does not eliminate the possibility of Riyadh putting pressure on Islamabad to normalize relations with Tel Aviv.
“As for Saudi pressure, yes, it cannot be ruled out,” Siddiqi told Anadolu Agency, saying if Pakistan recognizes the Jewish state, credit will go to Riyadh.
“The MBS could be quite calculating,” he said, referring to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. “If one were to believe what [Turkish President] Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, MBS threatened to expel all Pakistani workers in the kingdom if Imran Khan attended the Kuala Lumpur Summit last December.”
Pakistan refused to attend the summit at the eleventh hour reportedly due to pressure from Saudi Arabia, which saw the forum as an alternative to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
According to Siddiqi, Pakistani officials, even former officials, however, would not confirm or deny if there is any pressure on Pakistan to recognize Israel.
The waning influence of the pan-Islamism and pan-Arabism movements, combined with increasing U.S. pressure, will cause Oman, Bahrain and Morocco to soon join the United Arab Emirates in formalizing ties with Israel, accelerating a longer-term normalization trend that no longer hinges on the formation of a Palestinian state. The allure of Israel’s technology and defense capabilities could also compel other Muslim states with covert ties and limited histories of overt conflict with Israel, such as Pakistan, to follow suit. Israel will, in turn, see expanding global economic ties that strengthen its post-pandemic recovery, as well as stronger regional allies that bolster its position against Iran should the upcoming U.S. election yield a less hawkish administration in Washington….
Factors supporting Israel’s role in the Middle East
Firstly, Israel’s alliance with the United States of America looms large over every alliance in the region. Israel occupies a special place of importance for the USA, which has long provided it with finances, defence technology and promises to defend it in times of conflict. For nations like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other gulf countries which have relied on the US for security and oil purchasing guarantees, this paved the way for thawing ties with Israel.
Secondly, especially over the last decade or so, the US’s appetite to stay in the Middle East diminished, and it largely accorded itself as a net seller of weapons and technology to the region as opposed to a security guarantor for many of these nations. This coincided with Israel’s role as a supplier of defense technology to many nations across the world. Most recently, as part of the Abraham Accords of 2020, weapons sales between the nations involved have led it to be dubbed as the ‘Arms Sales Accords’. This also demonstrates how the demand supply equation helps move relations.
Thirdly, the Iran factor is another that provides impetus to Israel and other Gulf and Arab nations to come together. Iran has been a prominent critic and rival of Israel and has often funded various anti-Israeli groups such as the Qassam Brigade (the armed wing of Hamas) as well as the Hezbollah. In a similar vein, theGulf nations which have based most of their domestic and foreign policy on ensuring the survival of their respective royal families have opposed Iran and its rhetoric of exporting its domestic revolution which necessitates replacing these royal families with an Islamic monarchy. Thus, in many statements that emerged after bilateral meetings between Israel and Gulf nations, countering Iran has become one of the mainstays of these alliances.
The UAE and Bahrain recently established diplomatic and economic relations with Israel. Some other Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, are also weighing options to normalize relations. While Saudi Arabia has not yet recognized Israel, it is widely believed that the UAE and Bahrain could not have crossed the “red line” without Riyadh’s approval.
Pakistan’s former ambassador to Saudi Arabia Shahid Amin, nonetheless, acknowledged that Abu Dhabi and Manama have normalized ties with Tel Aviv with Riyadh’s consent. But, he said, it would be difficult for Riyadh to do so, given the internal and external issues it could face. “Saudi Arabia spearheads the Muslim world, its recognition will invite too many problems for itself,” he explained. What Amin doesnot understand that Prince Salman does not care about these anymore, KSA sits on wealth now.
But even if there is pressure, Pakistan will not bow to that, according to Masood.“Imran Khan fully understands that Pakistanis will never accept any decision which aims to recognize or normalize ties with Israel. That’s what he has made it clear that time and again,” he said. “Saudi Arabia too knows this very well.”Supporting his view, Siddiqi said “a hasty recognition could unleash a wave of extremist backlash, which the weak and beleaguered Imran Khan government cannot afford.”Both have now proved to be incorrect in their prediction. as we all know.
There’s a discernable pattern in the sequential recognition of Israel by Arab states over the past few months. In all cases the US played a key role in bringing Arab parties around by holding out arms sales as carrots or acceding to other demands important to them
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, encouraged by the muted reactions to the Bahraini and Emirati moves, decided to meet with Netanyahu in the presence of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo a few weeks ago, thus making public ongoing Saudi–Israeli coordination aimed at Iran, which both consider the primary threat to their security. Two factors motivated the Saudi decision. The first was to signal to Iran that Riyadh won’t be alone in a future showdown with Tehran even if the US decides not to directly participate in any confrontation with Iran. Second, MbS wanted to placate the US Congress, which has a heavy pro-Israeli presence and has been critical of him since the brutal assassination and dismemberment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which most people believe was carried out on his orders.
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Israel’s success in establishing diplomatic relations with four Arab states in quick succession signals that the Palestinian issue is no longer considered important by Arab regimes and that publicly selling out the Palestinians doesn’t affect their legitimacy at home. However, this series of diplomatic victories is not as great a breakthrough for Israel as many Western analysts assume. In most cases it merely formalises relations that existed without much publicity for years if not decades.
It won’t be much of a surprise if Saudi Arabia establishes diplomatic relations with Israel soon after Biden’s inauguration. Given Saudi Arabia’s importance because of its oil wealth and its position as the ‘protector’ of the two holiest Islamic sites, this would be a major public relations success for Israel and would likely intensify Netanyahu’s opposition to Biden’s attempt to revive the nuclear agreement and normalise relations with Iran. A coordinated public bid by Israel and Saudi Arabia to derail Biden’s projected opening towards Iran can be expected to carry greater weight with Washington than if they acted separately. And so also Pakistan.
